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Rates Spark: Growth disappointments on ECB day
19 小时之前 · The ECB cut the policy rate to 2.75% as expected, thereby approaching the estimated neutral range of 1.75% to 2.5%. Weak growth numbers helped feed the dovish sentiment and we think the front end of the euro curve can therefore still move lower.
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The ING THINK team is looking at the major economic crisis and challenges that follow each other in rapid succession today
THINK Ahead: Central bankers’ calm before the inevitable storms
13 小时之前 · THINK Ahead in developed markets. United States (James Knightley). Tariff decision: The big story for the coming week is what President Donald Trump decides to do on tariffs.He has threatened Canada and Mexico with universal tariffs of 25% and China with 10% tariffs from February 1 st.Should they be enacted, the market repercussions will be significant, and it will heighten fears of a global ...
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Why the ECB’s Lagarde is looking out the window but could soon …
1 天前 · Even without having it fully telegraphed in recent weeks, the European Central Bank's decision to cut policy interest rates by 25bp today is no surprise. Despite somewhat stickier headline inflation, the sluggishness of the eurozone economy as well as the ECB’s strong conviction that inflation ...
Robust underlying growth despite US GDP disappointment
1 天前 · Strong consumer drives growth. US fourth quarter GDP grew at a 2.3% annualised rate, a little below the 2.6% consensus, but the details tell a more robust story that will keep the Fed wary about easing monetary policy too far too fast.
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How things can go wrong – or right – for the global economy
2024年10月10日 · Two alternative scenarios for the economic outlook. The global economic outlook hinges on whether we’re heading for a US recession, whether China can escape the current cycle of falling property prices and weak sentiment, and whether we see a cooling in geopolitical tensions.
Rates Spark: Mounting concerns keep up the steepening
2024年9月25日 · Mounting macro concerns also keep the EUR steepening dynamic in place. In the eurozone, some of the main macro concerns centre around Germany. Disappointing data over the past two days; Monday’s PMIs and Tuesday’s Ifo, have pushed markets to expect a cut in October as the base case now – close to 16bp was priced as of Tuesday reflecting a greater than 60% implied probability of a cut.